Alleged Islamic State leader Mohammed Abdi and his wife Nuseiba Osman alias Umm Farida, were this week charged with planning to unlease an anthrax terror attack in Kenya. This comes weeks after an announcement that the country might be facing eminent threats from Islamic State.
Researchers and security analysts hold divided opinion over the presence of IS in the country with some dismissing it as a mere posturing by Kenya to remain relevant in the international terrorism spheres. They term Kenya as a country playing the politics of threats inflation to grab world attention and attract funding from donors.
Others hold a view that the information from government may have some credence and should not be dismissed on face value, however demanding that the information on ISIS presence in the country, be put to serious analytical scrutiny for authentication.
On May 4, 2010, police through a press release, reported that they had thwarted a biological attack after arresting the mastermind Mohamed Abdi Ali on April 29 and later the wife Nuseba Mohammed Hajj and an accomplice Fatuma Mohamed Hanshi. The statement further said two other accomplices Farah Dagne and Ahmed Hish were on the run and a Sh2 million bounty had been placed on their heads. Police said that the suspects had links to ISIS and were plotting to launch an anthrax attack with devastating consequences.
In what they termed as an intensified crackdown on the IS network police said on May 24, they had arrested Kuguzo Mwangolo Mgutu and Abubabkar Jillo Mohamed. The statement from police said the two had been radicalised at a Kangemi Mosque after which they were recruited into IS network by Mohamed Abdi. They were said to be planning retaliatory attacks in Nairobi and Mombasa to protest the arrest of their recruiter.
In the last two years according to Andrew Franklin, local media has often reported security forces’ press releases warning of girls and women being lured by ISIS to become wives of fighters in Iraq as well as Syria; unsubstantiated reports of al Shabaab fighters defecting to IS in Somalia have also been reported albeit mainly in the context of how al Shabaab is becoming weaker because of internal divisions.
“One reason for this new narrative is that the growth of IS in the Greater Horn of Africa is superficially true and not to be quickly dismissed,”Franklin said explaining that Boko Haram in Nigeria declared allegiance to IS in 2013 and rebranded as Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) as it expanded operations beyond northeast Nigeria into neighboring countries.
Furthermore he said five years of chaos and anarchy in Libya has allowed ISIS militants to occupy strategic coastal enclaves on the Mediterranean from which to launch terror attacks against western or secular interests in Tunisia as well as Egypt.
“However the situation in Kenya is much more complicated because the government prefers not to acknowledge the insurgencies in its Front Line Counties along the north east border with Somalia or in the counties of the former Coast Province. The government wants to maintain the fiction that terrorism in Kenya has its origins in external factors and it promotes the idea that Kenya is another front in the global war on terror,” he said.
Abdullahi Bashir, a security expert and a retired major, said research shows that Kenya isn’t yet attractive to ISIS operations therefore its presence in Kenya is non-existence.
He explained that assertions by Kenya that ISIS is having a foot in the country, might be informed by assumptions created from youth who are sneaking out of the country but don’t end up in Somalia thus a conclusion is made that they are in Middle East joining IS.
“At the moment ISIS isn’t interested in fighting here because there is no ideological or motivating factors. What we are doing is creating names for an outfit that poses no threat to Kenya,” he said adding that already IS has its plate full.
He said Kenya and other Horn of Africa countries are tempted to start dangling the IS narrative to create a new threat shifting international focus from al Shabaab narrative which is no longer attractive.
“The ISIS train is now fashionable and everyone wants to hop in so they aren’t left behind. This might explain perhaps why we are hearing much more on ISIS rather than al shabab which still poses serious security threats to us,” he said.
Franklin said Kenya needs to continue attracting international financial assistance for its security especially after KDF defeats at El Adde and al Shabaab’s concentration on making areas of Somalia ungovernable prior to the 2016 elections.
“Successful ISIS terror attacks in Paris, Brussels and Turkey and its continuing resilience in Iraq and Syria plus expansion to Libya, can be used to attract plentiful American financial support to “counter violent extremism” and fight terror in Kenya. After all who wants to save money when the threat of ISIS might be real and significant?,” he posed.
On whether there are Kenyan youth who will want to join ISIS, Franklin said that Kenya provides conducive ground for recruitment because it has many alienated and dissatisfied Muslims youth with genuine grievances against government that might be used to lure them into joining so as to retaliate against what they perceive as an oppressive government.
Franklin said that claims that ISIS adherents were foiled prior to launching an anthrax terror attack in Kenya had lost any credibility since the police have been unable to produce any evidence that a biological attack would make any sense to ISIS or any other terrorist organisation.
He said weaponised anthrax is difficult to formulate, stock pile and deploy to any great immediate effect.
“Anthrax can produce a particularly virulent flu-like illness which presents five to seven days after exposure but which can be successfully treated with available anti-biotics. The initial impact of an anthrax attack is literally non-existent unless samples of “weaponised anthrax” are recovered at the scene or if someone notices a spike in a certain demographic group seeking medical attention for the “flu,” he explained.
However according to retired Colonel Benjamin Muema, the ISIS threat should not underplayed or dismissed.
He said it isn’t peculiar that ISIS will want to team up with al Shabaab and establish its presence in Kenya.
“If you look at the hierarchy of terror groups, their operations and sometimes ideology for instance of establishing a caliphate they are intertwined and sometimes may collabo to replenish and build solidarity when at threat. So the assertion by government isn’t far fetched,” he said.
He cast doubts on security agencies’ ability to either detect nor thwart any biological attacks.
“As we speak today, our security agencies don’t have tools nor any capacity to deal with any biological warfare. Therefore our focus should be on training our forces and giving them the necessary equipment so that they can be able to counter nuclear, chemical and any other type of warfare tactics that terrorists might want to employ,” he said.
He called on creation of police arm to deal with any biological threats.
A source speaking on annonymity, said that even though there are tell-tell signs of ISIS trying to create cells in the region, latest claims by government might be exaggerated and informed by diminishing the threat of al Shabaab activities in the country, which has impacted negatively on donor fund flow.
The source said that even though they might be trying to establish a global presence by establishing foreign cells, its difficult to trace them given that they apply the bamboo stick strategy where cell members don’t know each other and work independently to accomplish a mission as it was the case with the Belgium and France attacks.
“Maybe they (ISIS) is here but not in a big way like the security agencies want to paint it. But the motivation behind the government alarming statements might be driven by desire to whip public and international community emotions, off-course to attract sympathy and funds,” the source said.
Security consultant Hezekiah Ogingo Ojuok, said the warning by the police on ISIS should be taken seriously.
“Its important for Kenyans to use pieces of information from police, be vigilant and stop being too inquisitive because threats are all over,” he said.
But when reached for comment, the National Counter Terrorism Centre (CTC) declined to discuss the matter even though they are the government agency mandated to monitor global terrorism trends, collect information on terrorists activities and plans and analyse threats.
“Let me not comment. Just know that we take all threats seriously,” Martin Kimani, NCTC director said when asked if there is any credence on the information that ISIS is trying to create a presence in Kenya, or its just mere posturing by Kenya to seek relevance.
(+) At a glance
Desire by the terrorist organisation to cause mass casualties in their attacks may drive them to adopt weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
However this requires high technological know how and financial assets to weaponise and launch mass casualty attacks. However, dissemination and production of pathogens isn’t a simple task as it requires massive resources, knowledge and equipment. Some of the WMD that might be adopted, is chemical terrorism, which is deliberate release of toxic chemicals into the environment, water bodies, food with intentions to poison and kill people.
Some of the common war chemicals agents is sarin. It is launched as sarin nerve gas which is highly volatile and kills within one or two minutes once inhaled or once it gets into contact with the skin or eyes. It gained international attention in 1995 when it was used to attack the Tokyo Subway. Use of sarin deters emergency response because its dangerous to those who get secondary exposure meaning the site of attacks can only be accessed after they are decontaminated. Other chemical agents are ammonia and hydrogen cyanide.
Anthrax attacks belong to bioterrorism warfare, where micro-organisms are developed into bacteria, viruses, and toxins and used as weapons of mass destruction. It’s the most complex to use due to the agents used with virus pathogens being the most difficult to manipulate. The virus pathogens are used to launch smallpox attacks, higher fever viruses are manipulate into Ebola and marburg and may be deployed by releasing them in the air where a small number of particles can infect a large number of people. Bacterial pathogens are used to for developing anthrax, cholera, botulism or plague. Development of bio-weapons is difficult due to difficulties in acquiring germs for its development following an international ban on the same. Its manipulation also needs highly specialised laboratories and knowledge.
Finally there is the common nuclear terrorism which entails detonation of nuclear device whose component is enriched uranium or a plutonium.