It pays to be Santa and when Jubilee wants your votes, Christmas comes early.
President Uhuru Kenyatta's strategy of launching development projects to win Cord leader Raila Odinga's Western and Coast supporters is paying off, 11 months to the election.
The two regions voted overwhelmingly for Raila in 2013 and were considered "safe" ODM zones.
However, the head of state and Deputy President William Ruto are determined to stamp Jubilee's influence and wrest the region from Cord by initiating numerous big projects — lighting, markets, tarmacked roads, dams, hospital equipment.
The opposition is resisting the onslaught, but it doesn't have the goodies to compete.
Expert comment: Can Jubilee explain the source of its mega funds?
On Saturday, however, Cord will hold a massive rally in Mombasa, simultaneous with the launch in Nairobi of the Jubilee Party, an amalgamation of a dozen affiliates. Raila is expected to make a major announcement. The venue is to be today.
“Raila will lead all of us and we expect all ODM governors, senators and MPs to attend,” Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho said. He is ODM's deputy party leader.
See what we give you
"You did not vote for us but you can see the development we have brought to this area," Uhuru said in Kwale county last Saturday.
But Raila, addressing rallies in Kakamega county, this week dismissed Jubilee's achievements as too little, too late. a
Uhuru and Raila have made many trips to Western and Coast in four years to build support.
While Raila has toured virtually all Western counties in the last three months, Uhuru plans a major visit in coming days.
He will open the revived Webuye Pan Paper mills, launch tarmacking of the Busia-Malaba road, never paved since independence.
The President will launch water projects in Bungoma and Kakamega and grant a charter to Kaimosi Friends University. He will reopen Sigiri Bridge in Budalang'i.
Western's Luhya community is the second most populous ethnic group, after the Kikuyu and both Raila and Uhuru need its support.
Several Luhya MPs led UDF’s Benjamin Washiali (Mumias East) are preparing the ground for Uhuru's visit to Western.
Uhuru has also been camping at the Coast for the past week, holding persuasive meetings with opinion leaders and touring development projects.
He commissioned the first phase of the Sh30 billion second container terminal at Mombasa Port. He launched Mkanda Dam and presented radiology equipment to Msambweni Referral Hospital. At Malindi in Kilifi, he launched tarmacking of the 110km Sh4.2 billion Malindi-Kakoneni Sala Gate road. Malindi Hospital will be equipped with MRI, operating theatre, dialysis, radiology and intensive care facilities.
Catching big fish
The President and DP have made big catches at the Coast. They have lured opposition Governors Salim Mvurya (ODM) of Kwale and Hussein Dado (Wiper) of Tana River to join Jubilee Party to be launched on Saturday.
The two said they had ditched their parties because Jubilee has brought development.
“You have trusted me and my deputy with development. I ask you to trust us on giving you the political direction,” Mvurya said on Sunday at Jomo Kenyatta Primary School in Msambweni.
"Those engaging in riddles should continue doing so. Jubilee has a plan for Kenya which is to improve the quality of life for our people. We will focus on development," Ruto said last Saturday in Mombasa.
Coast MPs led by ODM rebel and Kilifi North MP Gideon Mung’aro are leading spirited efforts to dislodge Cord.
They are Khatib Mwashetani (Lunga Lunga), Zainab Chidzuga (Kwale woman representative), Mustafa Idd (Kilifi South), Shariff Athman (Lamu East) and Peter Shehe (Ganze).
Yesterday Mung’aro told the Star Jubilee had successfully penetrated the region and Uhuru will garner more votes than any opposition presidential candidate in 2017.
“We want to be in government to make decisions together and not to be begging like today. The ground is shifting fast and better those not with us realised that fact now. Coast today is different from that we knew in 2013. We are in Jubilee to stay," Mung'aro said.
“We shall witness major infrastructural projects, including roads and lighting. Ongoing ones will be completed and people will see for themselves the big benefits of being in government,” he said.
Athman said the coast, Raila’s stronghold for many years, has remained marginalised.
“President Kenyatta’s government has shown us in just three years that it means well for us. The Garsen-Witu road is being tarmacked for the first time since independence, other developments are ongoing,” he said.
Don't pop the champagne yet
However, it's too soon for Uhuru and Jubilee to celebrate, says Prof Adams Oloo, head of Political Science at the University of Nairobi.
“As long as the President has not touched the conscience of mwananchi, things remain the same as they were in 2013,” he told the Star yesterday.
“Nothing has changed. What has changed are individual leaders being swayed by the financial muscle of Jubilee,” he told the Star.
According to the Independent Electoral Commission's final numbers, the Cord areas of Nyanza, Western and Coast did not register most of the eligible voters. Even those who did register did not out turn to vote for Raila in large numbers.
The voting population is increasing. Those who were at least 15 years old in 2013 are eligible to vote.
It is estimated 22 million Kenyans will be eligible to register (40 per cent of the adult population) and vote in 2017. Of that number, 12 million will be from Cord strongholds, 10 million from Jubilee turf.
“Jubilee needs to reach out to the people of Western Kenya and Coast , perceived Cord strongholds, for it to win comfortably in the first round in 2017," says political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi.
Mvurya and Ukur Yatani (ODM, Marsabit) are reported to have defected to Jubilee and will be paraded on Saturday.