CAMPAIGNS for the August election officially kicked off yesterday, but President Uhuru Kenyatta and NASA torchbearer Raila Odinga are unlikely to campaign in at least nine counties.
Yesterday Raila and three other Presidential candidates presented their papers to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission and today President Uhuru is expected to present his at KICC.
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Among the things, the candidates are expected to present to the electoral agency include documents of their respective nationwide campaign calendars and state resources at their disposal.
The historical longstanding political hostility between the Agikuyu and the Luo communities still plays a major role in determining the campaign calendars of Uhuru and Raila.
Seventy days to the August 8 General Election, the two leading candidates have not campaigned in nine counties, which they perceive either to be hostile or inconsequential as they might not get meaningful numbers of votes.
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Apart from attending state functions in Kisumu and Migori, President Uhuru has never toured the counties to drum up support for his Jubilee Party or his reelection.
The other counties in Nyanza region that Uhuru has never toured include Homa Bay and Siaya.
Uhuru was in Kisumu in April this year, where he presided over the 58th Kenya National Drama Festival at Kisumu State Lodge.
He has also visited the county to launch National Youth Service activities and in April 2013 - just a month after taking over government – he visited the county for the burial of Okuta Osiany, who until his passing was the Secretary General of the Kenya National Union of Teachers.
He has visited Migori once, in September 2014, where he launched an anti-malaria campaign. During the function, rowdy youths hurled shoes at the presidential dais and threw plastic chairs across the field, although it was unclear who the target was.
On the other hand, Raila has generally kept off campaigning in the larger Mt Kenya region, and when he does he restricts his campaigns to Lower Eastern, to the Meru and Tharaka Nithi counties.
In what is reported to be perceived fear of a poor reception, Raila has not campaigned in the Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a and Kiambu counties.
Raila was in Nyeri county in March this year for the burial of Governor Nderitu Gachagu and he was in Kiambu in 2014 for the burial of former Nairobi deputy mayor Waithaka Machua.
In the run up to the 2002 General Election, a political miracle happened - the Luos and the Kikuyus teamed up to defeat Kanu presidential candidate Uhuru (now the Fourth President of Kenya).
That unity, however, did not last beyond the fifth year of President Mwai Kibaki’s first term (2002-2007).
The suspicion and mistrust between the two communities haunted the Grand Coalition administration that brought together President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
Before this historic coming together, the one constant of Kenyan politics was widely believed to be that Kikuyus would never ever vote for a Luo presidential candidate; and likewise, that Luos would vote for just about anyone but a Kikuyu in a presidential race. For decades, the rift between these two communities seemed like a permanent feature of the Kenyan political landscape.
The mistrust between the two communities dates back to late 1960s, when, according to the Luo narrative, the rivalry started in earnest with the assassination in broad daylight of the Luo political genius Tom Mboya, which many laid at the door of the Jomo Kenyatta regime’s “Kiambu Mafia”.
The detention without trial of the founding Vice President and Raila's father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga from November 1969 toMay 1971, amidst the national crisis following the Mboya murder, also catalyzed the enormous ethnic mistrust, which has been handed down from one political period and generation to the other across 48 years.
The Kikuyu narrative, to a large extent, gave much attention to a single and uniquely horrifying event on October 29, 1969 - the “Russia Hospital incident” - during which President Kenyatta’s motorcade was attacked by a large street mob in Kisumu, when he was in the lakeside town for the official opening of the Kisumu Provincial Hospital.
The mob reportedly screamed at Kenyatta, demanding to be told, according to one analyst, “why he had taken Tom Mboya and when the situation appeared to be getting out of hand, Kenyatta's bodyguards fired right into the crowd, killing several people”.
Political analyst Prof Edward Kisiang'ani says the two communities have been consumed by negative tribal sentiment and have formed and reinforced phobias against each other.
He said both Raila and Uhuru, informed by longstanding stereotypes, believe that that they will not get votes in the regions that they give such a wide berth to.
“Raila and Uhuru have colonised their tribes, they will easily support their own. Raila does not expect votes in Mt Kenya region and Uhuru, on the other hand, does not expect any votes in Luo Nyanza,” Kisiang'ani told the Star yesterday on the phone.
He pointed out that Uhuru fears going to Luo Nyanza because he will be asked why his community has never supported Raila, despite supporting their own in 2002.
“Uhuru is scared, what goes on in his mind is Luos supported his brother and his community never supported Raila in 2013,” he said.
Raila yesterday expressed unwavering confidence about his NASA Pentagon campaign brigades dethroning Jubilee Uhuru's administration in the August contest. He said, "This is a tsunami, 2002 was a cyclone".
Raila went on: “This is a very divine moment. The first time we ran was basically like a practicing match. The last two times were a disappointment because we won and we were denied victory. We are hoping that this time round our victory is not going to be denied again."
Raila was speaking after arriving at KICC for clearance by the IEBC.
Others who presented their papers and were cleared to vie yesterday include Ekuru Aukot (of ThirdWay Alliance Kenya), Mohammed Dida (Alliance for Real Change) and Justus Juma (Justice and Freedom Party).
Dida urged the IEBC to ensure the polls are credible to restore Kenyans’ confidence in the electoral commission.
“Kenyans have lost confidence in themselves and government institutions. I hope Kenyans will love you most [Chebukati] in August after you announce credible results,” he said.
Presidential aspirants Cyrus Jirongo Shakhalaga (United Democratic Party), and Independents Michael Wainaina and Joseph Nyagah will present their nomination papers for clearance today.
In 2007 Raila lost to Kibaki in a disputed election that led to bloodshed and in 2013 he lost to Uhuru, in what he claimed was a race rigged by the IEBC, then chaired by Isaack Hassan, in favour of Jubilee.
Wafula Chebukati, the chairman of the IEBC, is the national returning officer for the presidential election. He congratulated Raila and Kalonzo for meeting the laid-down nomination qualifications to contest and asked them to ensure their campaigns are peaceful.
“As you go out there campaigning all over the country, campaign peacefully. We, as the Commission, are very concerned that there be no violence. You have signed the Code of Conduct both for your respective political parties as well as candidates," Chebukati said.
He added, “As the Commission, we will not hesitate to take any action if you breach that Code of Conduct. We want this country to be peaceful; before, during and after the election. I expect that you deposit your campaign schedules so that we harmonize with other political parties. That should be done as soon as possible.”
Raila affirmed that their campaigns will be peaceful, but asked the Commission to ensure the Jubilee administration does not use security officers and the National Cohesion and Integration Commission charged with monitoring hate speech to harass and intimidate the opposition during campaigns.
“On behalf of our supporters, I have serious concerns about the use of security forces during this period, particularly to try to intimidate and interfere with the normal campaign. We are also concerned that hate speech is going to be used as an excuse to try to muzzle people from campaigning peacefully,” he said.
Raila also challenged Chebukati's team to ensure the polls are free, fair and credible. He assured the IEBC that they will concede defeat if they lose in a fair contest.
“We . . . don't want to have a situation where he have to go to court to contest the results. We are going to cooperate with the Commission during this challenging electioneering period,” he said.
He urged the IEBC rein in civil servants who break the law by campaigning for Jubilee. Raila also cautioned the government against using public resources such as military planes during campaigns.
Kalonzo expressed confidence about “a tremendous NASA victory”.
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